Eddie Murphy -135 to win Best Supporting Actor seems like solid wager....

[gynecologist]

<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 bgColor=#003366 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=580>Entertainment</TD><TD width=20>EXIT</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=580>79th Annual Academy Awards - Best Supporting Actor</TD><TD width=20> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#003366><TD vAlign=top width=120>2/25/2007 8:00 PM</TD><TD vAlign=top width=500>Odds to win the best Supporting Actor award Maximum wager is $500</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55>131</TD><TD width=300>Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls) </TD><TD width=65> -135 </TD><TD width=200> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width=620 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=55>132</TD><TD width=300>Any Other </TD><TD width=65> +105 </TD><TD width=200> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Seems solid.. Murphy is -425 @ Cris...

 

[HPark1]

Using Cris as an indicator isn't the greatest idea. As you can see according to their odds the next best choice is Arkin @ +120. Cris will shift the line on a certain candidate when its bet on but not re-adjust any of the other options so you're looking at massive juice in most of these categories.

If you look around most books have Murphy around -150.

 

[JamesTrout]

Hmmm. Alan Arkin has had more than a few bets placed on him winning as of late which is a little worrying.

It'll be some sort of an upset considering the number of precursor awards that Eddie Murphy has won.

OT: Peter O'Toole is a popular pick at Briitsh sportsbooks apparently to upset Forest Whitaker over in Best Actor!

 

[HPark1]

yes quite a few picking Arkin for the mild upset here.

Murphy is apparently a bit of an ass and people believe it may cost him a few votes. I read somewhere he declined to perform his nominated song at the Oscars. And don't forget Norbit was released during the voting period, perhaps several more votes gone.

Also the academy made it obvious they are not in love with Dreamgirls when it didn't get a best pic nomination.

Tough call but the odds now seem fair.

 

[Tchocky]

Using Cris as an indicator isn't the greatest idea. As you can see according to their odds the next best choice is Arkin @ +120. Cris will shift the line on a certain candidate when its bet on but not re-adjust any of the other options so you're looking at massive juice in most of these categories.

If you look around most books have Murphy around -150.

Pinnacle has Arkin at +238. Murphy probably will win. I think "The Departed" at +108 or "Babel" at +324 are much better values.

 

[HPark1]

I wouldn't touch The Departed at odds near even. From all I've read its going to be a close ballot with all 5 movies getting some love.

Babel, LMS and Departed appear to be slightly ahead of The Queen and Letters but its very unclear.

Academy usually doesn't go for violent flicks and the movie doesn't really have any sort of strong meaning.

 

[gynecologist]

Everything I'm hearing has Little Miss Sunshine winning best pic..

 

[3DGlasses]

I second that... Little Miss Sunshine will take the gold. Lots of members have already leaked that they have voted for it, plus it's won PGA and SAG award which is very good.

 

[rouxdogg]

I second that... Little Miss Sunshine will take the gold. Lots of members have already leaked that they have voted for it, plus it's won PGA and SAG award which is very good.

This would be sad if that happens. A fukin shame if marty is robbed again.

 

[HPark1]

This would be sad if that happens. A fukin shame if marty is robbed again.

Marty will more then likely win Director, don't know how much of a robbery it is if The Departed doesn't win best pic as well.

I'm not sure with the sentiment all signs point to LMS for best pic. I've read quite a bit and there is certainly no real consensus as to where the votes went. I'm guessing its possible this year's winner for best pic won't garner 30% of the votes. From a betting point I say you can try anything except The Departed.

 

[trytrytry]

too large of a historical correlation to back director winner with best picture. I have to back Departed

 

[Railbird]

marty is a scumbag

 

[HPark1]

too large of a historical correlation to back director winner with best picture. I have to back Departed

Last six years the best director and best picture have matched up half the time.

Remember this year voters might feel obligated to give Scorcese the Oscar even though The Departed wasn't their number one choice.

 

[3DGlasses]

This would be sad if that happens. A fukin shame if marty is robbed again.

He'll win best director.

I don't think it's robbery... I like Departed but it's not even close to being one of Martin's best pictures. Goodfellas, Casino, Taxi... all better pictures IMO.

Saw an interview where two academy voters said they would be absolutely shocked if Departed won best picture.

 

[gynecologist]

marty is a scumbag

He is the best living director...